Pre-Pandemic Zoonotic Influenza: A Comprehensive Preparedness and Response Framework
The recent surge in HPAI A(H5N1) cases among wild birds in Europe during the 2025 autumn migration has underscored the critical need for robust preparedness and coordinated public health strategies. This comprehensive framework aims to equip EU/EEA countries with a scalable and adaptable approach to managing zoonotic influenza outbreaks, focusing on early detection, risk assessment, and effective response measures.
We've identified 14 distinct scenarios, each meticulously crafted based on epidemiological and virological factors. These factors encompass animal origins, human case characteristics (number and exposure context), and severity indicators. Furthermore, each scenario is nuanced by the presence of mammalian viral adaptation, antiviral resistance, and vaccine mismatches. The framework provides a detailed roadmap and an accessible Excel tool for scenario definition and scoring, emphasizing transparency and consistency across nations. It adopts a One Health perspective, emphasizing the public health facet of response measures.
Baseline actions in surveillance, laboratory preparedness, and other public health interventions should be in place to address the current epidemiological landscape in the EU/EEA. If human cases emerge, escalating actions will be triggered, tailored to the specific characteristics of each scenario and further refined through risk assessments. We've outlined escalating actions for each public health domain, including interventions, surveillance, laboratory preparedness, and additional studies/research.
This guidance is designed to bolster countries' preparedness and capacities for the early detection and assessment of potential pandemic threats posed by zoonotic influenza viruses. The scenario framework serves as a dynamic tool, adaptable to evolving scientific evidence and shifting epidemiological conditions. It is tailored for EU/EEA national public health authorities, particularly those involved in preparedness plan updates, risk assessments, and policy formulation. Additionally, it is valuable for clinical and laboratory stakeholders engaged in zoonotic influenza surveillance, risk communication, and outbreak response.
